Evening Racing Preview – Southwell & Newcastle
This looks one of those evenings where the races are unlikely to be won by brute force or grand drama, but by whoever is still moving forward when others begin to paddle. Southwell will expose anything that doesn’t quite stay honest, while Newcastle has its usual habit of making half the field look comfortable until the final furlong reveals that several of them were, in fact, lying.
13:43 Southwell – Mount Ruapehu / Tuscan
The opener could revolve around Mount Ruapehu and Tuscan. Mount Ruapehu, trained by Iain Jardine and ridden by Jack Nicholls, carries 9st 7lb and comes here under very similar terms to his latest run, so there is no obvious excuse available from the scales. Tuscan, with Taryn Langley training and Adam Kirby booked, shoulders 10st after that recent Southwell win and now has a full 7lb in hand over Mount Ruapehu on actual weight carried, which is enough to make life a little less relaxing than it was ten days ago. If that rise doesn’t anchor him, he is clearly the one to beat, but if it does, Mount Ruapehu is the one most likely to be lurking nearby when things get serious.
16:38 Southwell – Clearpoint
Clearpoint looks interesting from a mark that still seems workable. Simon Hodgson’s runner, with Alistair Rawlinson up, has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive in this sort of race, and if he settles into one of those smooth Southwell rhythms that makes a horse look far cleverer than everyone else, he ought to be involved. Southwell is not really a place for flamboyance; it is more a place for keeping on when others have chosen a less ambitious lifestyle.
17:00 Newcastle – Rastnet
Rastnet looks one of the more solid options at Newcastle. John Butler’s filly has Billy Loughnane in the saddle and carries 9st 9lb, so there is no hiding place if she is not up to the job, but the profile is solid and the market clearly expects a bold show. Newcastle’s straight track tends to reward those who wait just long enough, rather than those who decide the race is theirs a furlong too soon and then spend the final hundred yards discovering it isn’t.
17:13 Southwell – Little Miss India
Little Miss India has to be taken seriously. James Owen’s mare, with Ashley Lewis taking off 5lb, is effectively eased in the saddle despite being asked to carry 9st 11lb on the card. That allowance matters, particularly when set against Velvet Red on 9st 8lb and Hackney Diamonds on 9st 1lb, because it means she is not giving away as much as it first appears. She has the course credentials as well, and if she travels comfortably into the straight she could be the one still going while others begin to look as though they’ve just remembered an urgent appointment elsewhere.
17:43 Southwell – Grabajabba
Grabajabba looks to have a proper chance in the 5.43. Michael Appleby’s gelding, with Alistair Rawlinson riding, carries 9st 9lb, which leaves him only 1lb worse off than Blazing Son on 9st 8lb and still comfortably above plenty of exposed sorts who are now looking suspiciously familiar from one race to the next. He is proven over course and distance, and in this grade that tends to count for rather a lot. If Rawlinson gets him into one of those handy stalking positions that Southwell likes, he should be in the argument late.
19:00 Newcastle – Mr Nugget
Mr Nugget looks one of the more straightforward runners on the card, which in racing terms is usually a compliment and occasionally a trap. David Simcock’s gelding has Rowan Scott aboard, carries 9st 8lb, and arrives here after a run of form figures that suggest he is doing everything except winning every time. He gets just 1lb from Alpha Capture, who has 9st 9lb, but unlike some of these he is at least in form rather than living off memories. If he gets into a rhythm down the straight, he could simply prove the most reliable one in the field.
19:30 Newcastle – Liverpool Star
Liverpool Star is the one at a bit more of a price who could make things interesting. He has been prominent in the market for this division and the setup suggests the return to this scenario is expected to suit. In races like these, that can mean one of two things: either the horse is very well found, or everyone else has seen the same thing and now there is nowhere to hide. Still, at Newcastle a well-timed challenge counts for plenty, and if he is delivered late enough he could go close.
20:00 Newcastle – Brave Traveller
Brave Traveller looks a strong contender. Bryan Smart’s runner, with Paul Mulrennan booked, carries 9st 5lb and returns here as a course-and-distance winner. The racecard makes it plain that he is near the head of the market, and with good reason. He only gives 1lb to Thankfully Simmy on 9st 4lb and seems to bring the cleaner profile into the race. If Mulrennan holds on to him just long enough, he could be the one still finding while others begin to wave the white flag.
20:30 Newcastle – Pit Boss
Pit Boss is the one who makes the most immediate sense. Liam Bailey’s runner, ridden by Conor Whiteley, carries 9st 7lb and comes here after another solid run. He is top of the betting forecast and you can see why: he is consistent, proven over course and distance, and is not being asked to shoulder anything outrageous. South Road also has 9st 7lb, so there is no edge there on weight, but Pit Boss looks the more dependable proposition. In a low-grade apprentice handicap, dependable is often worth more than brilliance, mainly because brilliance tends not to turn up in these races all that often.
Best Bet of the Day
20:30 Newcastle – Pit Boss
He is proven at the track and trip, comes here in form, and doesn’t have to concede anything meaningful to the obvious dangers. With Liam Bailey training and Conor Whiteley taking off a useful 3lb, he looks the one least likely to turn the closing stages into an existential crisis.
Selections
13:43 Southwell – Mount Ruapehu / Tuscan – split
16:38 Southwell – Clearpoint – 1 pt win
17:00 Newcastle – Rastnet – 1 pt each way
17:13 Southwell – Little Miss India – 1 pt each way
17:43 Southwell – Grabajabba – 1 pt each way
19:00 Newcastle – Mr Nugget – 1 pt win
19:30 Newcastle – Liverpool Star – 1 pt each way
20:00 Newcastle – Brave Traveller – 1 pt win
20:30 Newcastle – Pit Boss – 1 pt win
